The Las Vegas odds makers have Fabricio Werdum as a + 350 (SportsBook.com on June 25th) underdog going into his fight against Fedor, “The Last Emperor.” However, it would not be that huge of an upset if Werdum could in fact defeat Fedor at this weekend’s Strikeforce / M-1 Global MMA event. How do you ask? Let me tell you.

1) Fabricio Werdum has been tested against (and beaten) some of the top heavyweight MMA fighters in the world. The list of opponents includes Antonio Silva (decision win), Junior dos Santos (TKO loss), Brandon Vera (TKO win), Gabriel Gonzaga (TKO win, twice), Andrei Arlovski (decision loss), Antonio Nogueira (decision loss), Alistair Overeem (Kimura win) to name a few.

2) Fabricio Werdum trains with Brazil’s best at the Chute Boxe Academy. Rudimar Fedrigo, the head trainer of Chute Boxe Academy knows how to create a championship fight strategy. Fedrigo and Brazil’s top MMA gym has produced some of the sport’s greatest fighters; Anderson Silva, Shogun Rua, Wanderlei Silva, Thiago Silva, Anthony Johnson and top women’s MMA fighter, Cristiane Santos.

3) Werdum is hungry for a title shot with Overeem. Considering that Werdum defeated Overeem back in the 2006 PRIDE Grand Prix, you know he is itching to face off against the current Strikeforce heavyweight champion. Fabricio Werdum has never been given a championship shot in his mixed martial arts career. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu resume speaks for itself, two-time ADCC world heavyweight champion and two-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion. However, despite his success in the world of BJJ, he has come up short in his pursuit of a world mixed martial arts championship.

4) Fedor has not truly been tested since August 2005. Let’s face it Fedor has had a pretty easy path in the last four and a half years. Fedor is coming off of a nine month layoff from defeating an over-hyped Brett Rogers which was by the way, the first time Fedor was pushed to the second round since 2006! Before Fedor’s fight with Rogers, Fedor scored five consecutive first round victories against primarily (with the exception of Arlovski) second tier MMA heavyweights; Tim Sylvia, Hong Man Choi, Matt Linland, and Mark Hunt. Mark Coleman was the last man (prior to Rogers) to push Fedor past the first round. However, Fedor would go on to defeat Coleman early in the second round with an Armbar submission victory. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic was the last man to give Fedor a run for his money back at PRIDE Final Conflict in 2005. Fedor won that fight after a unanimous decision.

5) Fabricio Werdum has already defeated an Emelianenko! Yes, it isn’t quite the same but Werdum did easily defeat Fedor’s brother, Aleksander back in 2006 with a first round arm-triangle submission. Fabricio Werdum is only the second person who has defeated Aleksander and been given a shot at big brother, Fedor (Mirko Cro Cop was the first, I think we all know how that turned out).

Bottom line is that Fabricio Werdum is the most dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist Fedor has seen since Antonio Nogueira. If Werdum fights smart and uses his height (+ 4”) and reach advantage (+ 2”) to avoid the power punches of Emelianenko, Werdum’s BJJ should be strong enough to score him some serious points on the ground and potentially steal the fight.

So, what do you think? Does Fabricio Werdum have the formula to finally de-thrown The Last Emperor?

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